Jon Pilcher on Ausbiz: Neuren boosted by favourable sales forecast

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Key points:

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) projects US$700 million in Daybue sales by 2028

• Launch of Daybue Stix aims to improve patient and caregiver experience

• European approval decision for Daybue expected in the first quarter

• NNZ-2591 in late-stage trials could provide further growth opportunities

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) projects a significant uplift in sales of its Rett syndrome treatment, Daybue, with chief executive Jon Pilcher outlining that partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals anticipates US$700 million in 2028 sales, rising from an estimated US$385-400 million in 2025. Pilcher highlights the impact of several recent developments, including the launch of a new Daybue powder formulation, Daybue Stix, designed to be more user-friendly for patients. He attributes the expectations for higher sales to this innovation, an expanded US sales push from mid-2025, and the upcoming decision on European approval, expected in the first quarter of the year.

Milestone payments could follow, including US$50 million when Daybue annual sales reach US$500 million and a US$35 million payment upon European approval, all of which flow directly to Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line due to its royalty arrangements. Israeli approval of the oral solution version is also seen as positive, and eyes are set on the Japanese market, with local trial results expected late this year or early next year.

Pilcher emphasises the broad benefits Daybue has shown in clinical trials for Rett syndrome, addressing various symptoms and improving quality of life. He points to continued pharmaceutical pipeline development, with a second drug, NNZ-2591, in late-stage trials for neurodevelopmental disorders, as a potential further value driver.